It's now looking as if tania's scenario is more likely. According to the latest counting, Labor is now on track to win 73 seats versus 72 for the Coalition (counting the WA Nat who says he's really an Independent). If this is the case, then the right-leaning Independents are honour bound to back Labor if they are fair dinkum about wanting stable government. A Coalition government would need the backing of three right-leaning Independents, plus one left-leaning Independent or one Green to govern and pass legislation and I just don't see that happening, especially as he's already got the right-leaning Independents off side by refusing to present his campaign promises to Treasury for costing.
EDIT: And on the latest figures the LNP is pulling ahead again in the seat of Brisbane. >_< I shouldn't waste my readers' time with pointless speculation. Nobody will know what the final composition of the lower house will be until at least next week, if then.