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Sun, Jul. 3rd, 2016, 11:09 am
2016 Federal election recap and predictions

That was a fun night last night! :) I always like a close campaign. The second #AusVotes election in three elections which looks likely to end in a hung Parliament. I think the major parties are going to have to accept this is the new normal and get on with it. Minority governments work well in many other countries; I don't see why we should be special.
I wanted to get on the record my predictions for the election results, which we won't know for at least a few days yet. I think neither party will get a majority but the Coalition will end up with their nose in front. Turnbull will cobble together an agreement (even though both sides swore they wouldn't!) with Katter and maybe Nick Xenophon or Cathy McGowan. He will still have a raucous circus in the Senate to deal with. The schizophrenia in his own party will deepen, likely ending up with him being pulled too many different ways and he will get overthrown (the fourth leader toppled by their own party since 2010--this really is a new national sport!). The alliance will break down and we'll go to an early election.
I am struck by the parallels from the 2010 election. A leader gets rolled in their first term, the new leader takes the party to an early election where they just limp over the line as a minority government. (I know there are important differences too.) That one ended in failure for both Labor and the Greens. (The Greens announcing an "alliance" with Labor was always bad politics and they should have known better.)
So where does this leave the gay marriage plebiscite? I'm afraid that will end up a political football (but it was always going to be anyway). The newly empowered loony right in Turnbull's own party may kill it, or he might use it as a wedge issue in the Senate if he is confident Labor and the Greens will block it. Either way, I do not see gay marriage becoming legal in this term of government. We can try again in a few years' time! :)

Sun, Jul. 3rd, 2016 05:58 pm (UTC)

How's your own representative: are they one of those blessed creatures that actually listens, or are they more of a party apparatchik? (In my case, firmly the latter - one of those ambitious toadies that wants to ascend the ladder toward greater personal power. And the wonders of FPTP mean anything with a blue rosette gets waved into power at every election, thanks to all the outlying areas being rigidly conservative)

Fri, Jul. 8th, 2016 10:36 pm (UTC)

He's very much a party apparatchik, wouldn't dare think for himself. His smarmy campaign poster just sneers, "My daddy's so rich, he bought me this electorate!" I'm sure it's never occurred to him that he's expected to work as an MP. To his credit though, when he lost the seat in one election during a landslide to the other other party, he came back and recontested it the next election.

Tue, Jul. 5th, 2016 03:17 pm (UTC)

I detest the whole thing since Brexit. I will be campaigning for nothing more than regional representation for my region. Little else matters to me now.